Weather – IMD Forecast Signals Weaker July Monsoon After Dry Start to Season
Weather – India may witness a weaker spell of monsoon rainfall during July, according to the latest forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The outlook has raised fresh concerns for the agriculture sector, as the southwest monsoon provides the majority of the country’s annual rainfall and plays a vital role in supporting crops, water resources, and rural livelihoods.
IMD Projects Below-Normal Rainfall for July
The India Meteorological Department has projected that rainfall during July is likely to remain below the long-period average. IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said monthly rainfall is expected to stay below 94 percent of the historical average, indicating that several regions may receive less rain than is normally recorded during one of the wettest months of the year.
Weather experts noted that the evolving El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean are expected to become stronger in the coming months. The warming of sea surface temperatures associated with this climate pattern often influences rainfall distribution across India and may reduce the intensity of the southwest monsoon during the season.
Dry June Raises Agricultural Concerns
The latest outlook comes after India experienced one of its driest Junes in more than a century. Official data showed that nationwide rainfall during June remained 39 percent below normal, making it the fifth-driest June recorded since 1901. Earlier, the IMD had already estimated that June rainfall would remain below 92 percent of the long-period average, and the actual figures reflected that weaker-than-normal performance.
The shortfall in rainfall has increased concerns among farmers and policymakers because timely and sufficient monsoon showers are essential for sowing major crops. Agriculture in many parts of the country continues to depend heavily on seasonal rainfall, making the progress of the monsoon an important factor for food production and rural incomes.
Regional Rainfall Pattern Expected to Vary
According to the weather department, rainfall during July is unlikely to be evenly distributed across the country. Large parts of central, western, and northern India are expected to receive below-normal precipitation.
At the same time, the forecast suggests that a few regions may experience more favourable conditions. Parts of northwest India, east-central India, and areas of the eastern peninsular region are likely to record normal or even above-normal rainfall during the month, highlighting the uneven nature of this year’s monsoon pattern.
Delhi Likely to Receive Monsoon Around July 4
Residents of the national capital may not have to wait much longer for monsoon showers. Although the southwest monsoon generally reaches Delhi around June 27, the IMD now expects its arrival near July 4. The expected change in weather could bring relief from prolonged heat and dry conditions that have persisted across the city.
The weather office also stated that atmospheric conditions remain favourable for further advancement of the monsoon. Along with Delhi, rainfall is expected to spread across Haryana, Punjab, and the remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh over the next couple of days as the seasonal system continues its gradual progress.
Monsoon Advances Across More States
The southwest monsoon continued to expand its reach at the end of June. On June 30, it advanced into additional areas of Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Ladakh. Meteorologists will continue to monitor the movement of the monsoon and evolving weather systems to assess rainfall distribution during the remainder of the season.