Monsoon – India Braces for Weaker Late Monsoon as El Niño Intensifies
Monsoon -The second half of India’s southwest monsoon is expected to bring lower rainfall, raising fresh concerns for agriculture and water availability across several regions.
India may receive below-normal rainfall during August and September, according to the latest outlook from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast comes at a crucial stage of the kharif cropping season, as farmers depend on consistent rainfall for crop growth after sowing. The weaker rainfall outlook follows a challenging start to the monsoon, with June and July together recording a rainfall deficit of around 13% compared with the long-period average. As a result, kharif sowing has declined by nearly 5% so far this season.
El Niño Likely to Influence Rainfall Pattern
Meteorologists have linked the expected decline in rainfall to the continuing influence of a moderate El Niño over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Climate models indicate that this weather pattern is likely to strengthen through the remaining monsoon months, reducing the flow of moisture that typically supports rainfall across India.
Based on this assessment, the IMD has projected that rainfall during August and September is likely to remain below 94% of the long-period average. The department estimates cumulative rainfall of about 422.8 mm during these two months, a figure considered lower than normal. Alongside reduced rainfall, both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to stay above average across much of the country.
August Expected to Be Drier Than Usual
The forecast suggests that August could witness particularly weak rainfall in several regions. Historical rainfall records also indicate a gradual decline in August precipitation over the years, adding to concerns for the ongoing agricultural season.
According to the IMD, below-normal rainfall is likely across many parts of the country during August 2026. However, some areas of eastern Peninsular India, parts of northwest and central India, and isolated locations in eastern and northeastern regions may receive relatively better rainfall. The reduced rainfall is also expected to contribute to warmer weather conditions during both the day and night.
Ocean Conditions Continue to Support El Niño
Scientists have observed that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remain above normal, reflecting the continued presence of El Niño conditions. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by warmer ocean waters in the eastern Pacific, which often weakens the Indian southwest monsoon and alters rainfall distribution.
July Helped Reduce the Overall Rainfall Deficit
Despite the weaker seasonal trend, July brought some relief after widespread rainfall during three weeks of the month. The country eventually recorded rainfall slightly above the long-period average for July, exceeding it by around 1%. This improvement reduced the nationwide monsoon deficit from nearly 35.4% at the end of June to about 13% by the close of July.
Even so, rainfall remained uneven across the country. Around 53% of districts received normal or above-normal rainfall, while nearly 46% experienced deficient or significantly deficient rainfall, highlighting major regional differences in monsoon performance.
Several Regions Experienced Dry and Warmer Conditions
Rainfall shortages were especially severe in East and Northeast India, which registered their sixth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 1901 during the period. The Southern Peninsula also recorded its tenth-lowest rainfall since records began, reflecting a notably weak monsoon across these regions.
The lack of widespread rainfall also pushed temperatures higher. July became the second warmest on record for the Southern Peninsula since 1901, while night-time temperatures reached their highest level for the month. East and Northeast India also experienced their warmest July on record, underscoring the impact of below-normal rainfall and persistent warm conditions.