Monsoon Forecast – IMD Revises Rainfall Outlook, Heatwave Risk Rises in June
Monsoon Forecast – India is likely to witness a weaker start to the southwest monsoon season after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its rainfall projection for the June–September period. The weather agency has reduced its seasonal rainfall estimate to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), slightly lower than its earlier prediction of 92%. Alongside the revised forecast, meteorologists have also indicated a greater possibility of heatwave conditions during June in several parts of the country.
Revised Monsoon Projection for the Season
According to the IMD’s second long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, rainfall across the country’s primary monsoon-dependent regions is expected to remain below the long-term average. The monsoon core zone, which covers a large portion of mainland India and plays a crucial role in agriculture, is projected to receive rainfall amounting to 90% of the LPA. The forecast carries a model margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
The updated outlook suggests that rainfall distribution will not be uniform across the country, with some regions expected to fare better than others during the season.
Regional Rainfall Distribution
The IMD expects East and Northeast India to receive rainfall within the normal range, estimated between 94% and 106% of the LPA. However, many other regions are likely to record lower-than-normal precipitation.
Central India and the southern peninsula are forecast to receive less than 94% of the LPA. Meanwhile, northwestern parts of the country are expected to experience an even larger shortfall, with rainfall projected to remain below 92% of the long-term average. These projections indicate that several states could face reduced rainfall activity during the key monsoon months.
Delay in Monsoon Arrival
The progress of the monsoon has also been slower than initially anticipated. Earlier forecasts had suggested that the seasonal rains would reach the Kerala coast by May 26. However, the onset has been delayed by nearly a week.
Traditionally, the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1, marking the official beginning of the rainy season over the Indian subcontinent. A delayed arrival can influence rainfall patterns during the opening weeks of the season.
El Niño Conditions Under Watch
Weather experts are closely monitoring developments in the Pacific Ocean, where El Niño conditions are expected to influence India’s monsoon performance. The IMD has indicated that weak to moderate El Niño conditions are likely to persist during the monsoon months.
Scientists have also warned that a stronger El Niño phase could emerge after the monsoon season concludes. Such developments often affect global weather systems and can influence rainfall distribution across South Asia.
The weather department noted that rainfall below 89% of the LPA is categorized as deficient, while rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered below normal.
June Expected to Remain Drier Than Average
For June specifically, rainfall is likely to remain below the seasonal average across much of the country. The long-term average rainfall for the month stands at 166.9 millimeters.
Despite the broader dry outlook, some regions are expected to receive relatively better rainfall. These include Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, the northeastern states, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, where precipitation levels may remain closer to normal.
Heatwave Days Likely to Increase
In addition to reduced rainfall, June is expected to bring higher temperatures to several regions. The IMD has forecast an increase of two to three heatwave days above normal in parts of the country.
States that may experience prolonged heat stress include Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gujarat. Isolated areas of Maharashtra are also likely to witness hotter-than-usual conditions.
The combination of delayed monsoon activity, below-average rainfall expectations, and rising temperatures could make June a challenging month for several regions as they await stronger monsoon advancement.