ClimateChange – Coastal Regions Across India Face Rising Heat and Climate Risks

ClimateChange –  India’s vast coastline, stretching nearly 11,000 kilometres, could face significantly higher temperatures in the coming decades, according to a new climate assessment released by Azim Premji University in Bengaluru. The report indicates that about 40 coastal districts, particularly in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, may witness summer temperatures rising by around 1.5 degrees Celsius. Such increases could push wet-bulb temperatures close to 31 degrees Celsius, a level widely regarded as hazardous to human health.

Study Highlights Emerging Climate Challenges

Researchers based their projections on data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), incorporating regional corrections to improve the reliability of local forecasts. The findings suggest that the opportunity for effective adaptation measures is becoming increasingly limited as many parts of India move closer to the globally significant warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report stresses that climate-related risks are no longer distant possibilities but are becoming more evident across several regions. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and sea-level increases are expected to affect millions of people living along the coast.

Ernakulam Expected to See Sharp Temperature Rise

Among all coastal districts examined in the study, Ernakulam in Kerala is projected to experience the largest increase in peak summer temperatures. Researchers estimate that maximum temperatures in the district could climb by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius compared with current levels.

Scientists warn that prolonged exposure to higher temperatures and humidity could increase heat-related health risks, especially for vulnerable populations such as elderly residents, outdoor workers and individuals with existing medical conditions.

Rainfall Patterns Likely to Shift

The report also points to noticeable changes in monsoon rainfall across parts of western India. Coastal districts in Maharashtra and Gujarat are expected to receive above-average rainfall in the future.

Surat, one of Gujarat’s major urban centres, could experience a particularly significant rise in monsoon precipitation. According to the projections, rainfall in the district may increase by nearly 23 percent, raising concerns about urban flooding and pressure on existing infrastructure.

Rising Seas Threaten Coastal Communities

Another major concern highlighted in the study is sea-level rise. Researchers estimate that sea levels along India’s coastline could increase by around 15 centimetres by 2050. Such changes could have serious consequences for low-lying coastal regions where communities depend heavily on agriculture, fishing and related livelihoods.

Districts such as Ganjam in Odisha may face growing challenges from coastal erosion, flooding and displacement. Experts note that long-term planning will be essential to protect vulnerable populations and critical infrastructure.

Warmer Oceans Could Intensify Cyclones

The report further notes that sea surface temperatures are increasing at an average rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade. Warmer ocean waters provide additional energy for tropical storms, increasing the likelihood of stronger and potentially more destructive cyclones in the region.

Climate scientists believe that rising ocean temperatures, combined with sea-level rise, could amplify the impact of future coastal disasters and place additional pressure on emergency response systems.

Experts Call for Urgent Action

Commenting on the findings, Harini Nagendra, Director of the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University, said the report highlights realities that can no longer be overlooked. She noted that challenges ranging from heat stress in Ernakulam to increasing salinity levels in the Sundarbans demonstrate how climate vulnerability is becoming visible in everyday life.

The study concludes that timely adaptation strategies, stronger climate resilience measures and improved local planning will be critical to reducing future risks for India’s coastal communities.