El Nino – WMO Warns of Stronger Climate Pattern and Extreme Weather Risks
El Nino – The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to strengthen rapidly between July and September, raising the possibility of severe weather in several regions around the world.
The United Nations weather agency said the climate pattern has already developed and could reach a strong level in the coming months. Governments and emergency agencies have been urged to prepare for possible impacts on agriculture, public health, water supplies and disaster response systems.
Pacific warming signals stronger El Nino phase
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming can alter wind systems, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns across many parts of the world.
The event usually occurs every two to seven years and often lasts between nine and 12 months. It is part of a broader climate cycle that also includes La Nina, which generally brings cooler-than-average Pacific waters, as well as periods of neutral conditions.
According to the WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, current forecasts point to a rapid shift towards a strong El Nino event during the July-September period. The agency categorises El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.
Climate models show broad agreement
Forecasts from major climate centres indicate continued warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal average sea surface temperatures in key monitoring areas are expected to rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal levels.
The WMO said the available climate models were showing unusual consistency, increasing confidence in the outlook. El Nino is also expected to continue gaining strength during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, extending its influence to a wider range of regions.
At the same time, temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic are forecast to remain warmer than average, adding to broader concerns about heat and changing weather patterns.
Heatwaves, drought and heavy rain remain key concerns
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the strengthening climate pattern could increase the likelihood of drought, intense rainfall, heatwaves and marine heatwaves in different parts of the world.
El Nino often reaches its peak between November and February, but its impact on global temperatures can continue well beyond that period. Previous El Nino conditions contributed to exceptionally warm global temperatures in recent years, including 2023 and 2024.
The WMO said advanced seasonal forecasts and early warning systems would be important in reducing damage and protecting communities. Such information can help authorities prepare for crop losses, water shortages, disease risks and disruptions caused by extreme weather.
Rainfall outlook raises concerns for India and Australia
The July-September outlook suggests that above-average temperatures are likely across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north. This zone includes nearly all heavily populated regions outside the polar areas.
Rainfall forecasts are also consistent with a strengthening El Nino. Some parts of the southwestern United States may receive above-normal rainfall, while below-average rainfall is expected across the Indian subcontinent and large areas of Australia.
The forecast could be significant for countries dependent on seasonal rainfall for farming, drinking water and electricity generation. Weather agencies are expected to monitor changes closely during the southwest monsoon period.
Climate change may intensify impacts
The WMO said there is no clear evidence that climate change directly increases how often El Nino occurs or how strong each event becomes. However, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can increase the effects associated with the pattern.
Higher temperatures can provide more heat and moisture for severe weather, making heatwaves, heavy rainfall and related hazards more damaging. During the Northern Hemisphere summer, warmer Pacific waters linked to El Nino can also support hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific while reducing conditions favourable for storms in the Atlantic.