OilImports – India’s Russian Crude Purchases Ease Amid Trade Shift
OilImports – India’s purchases of Russian crude oil have slowed in recent weeks, reflecting a shift in monthly buying patterns even as the broader realignment in bilateral trade continues to hold firm.
India imported an average of 1.16 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in February, according to data compiled by energy analytics firm Kpler. That figure marks a notable decline from the 1.71 million barrels per day recorded as the average for 2025 so far. Despite the recent moderation, analysts say the larger structural shift in energy trade between the two countries remains unchanged.
Trade Patterns Reshaped After 2022
The transformation in commercial ties began after the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Western sanctions on Moscow redirected significant volumes of discounted Russian crude away from European markets toward Asia. India emerged as one of the largest buyers, taking advantage of price competitiveness in global oil markets.
Prior to 2022, Russia played only a limited role in India’s energy mix. In the financial year 2020–21, total bilateral trade between the two countries stood at $8.15 billion. That figure rose modestly to $13.12 billion in 2021–22, with Russian oil accounting for less than two percent of India’s overall crude basket at the time.
Surge in Crude Oil Imports
The situation changed sharply in the months that followed. By 2022–23, India’s imports from Russia had jumped to $46.21 billion, pushing total trade to $49.35 billion. The upward momentum continued in 2023–24, when imports climbed to $61.44 billion and overall bilateral trade reached a record $65.7 billion.
Preliminary estimates for 2024–25 suggest that total trade could settle between $68 billion and $70 billion, underscoring the scale of the economic reorientation. At its height, Russia supplied nearly 40 percent of India’s crude oil imports, becoming the country’s largest source of crude.
Energy market observers note that while monthly volumes may fluctuate due to pricing, logistics, or refining margins, the supply relationship built over the past three years has created long-term commercial linkages.
Widening Trade Deficit
While energy imports surged, India’s exports to Russia did not rise at the same pace. Outbound shipments — including pharmaceuticals, machinery, chemicals, and agricultural products — have remained above $4 billion annually in recent years. As a result, the trade balance has tilted heavily in Russia’s favor.
In 2023–24, India recorded a trade deficit exceeding $57 billion with Russia, largely driven by crude oil purchases. Economists point out that such imbalances are typical in energy-driven trade relationships but may require diversification over time to ensure sustainability.
Investment and Services Remain Stable
Beyond merchandise trade, services exchanges between the two countries have remained relatively steady. Both governments have set a target of achieving $50 billion in bilateral investment by 2025, reflecting ambitions to broaden economic cooperation beyond oil.
Russian investments in India span sectors such as energy, petrochemicals, banking, railways, and steel. These projects, officials say, represent a longer-term strategic partnership that extends beyond short-term fluctuations in crude oil imports.
Although recent data indicates a dip in India’s Russian crude intake, the broader trade architecture established since 2022 remains intact. Market participants will continue to watch oil prices, shipping routes, and geopolitical developments to assess whether the latest moderation signals a temporary adjustment or a more sustained trend in energy trade flows.