Rajya Sabha Election – AIMIM Set to Influence Bihar’s Fifth Seat Contest
Rajya Sabha Election – The upcoming Rajya Sabha election in Bihar has turned into a closely watched political contest with smaller parties expected to play a decisive role.-
The March 16 Rajya Sabha election for five seats from Bihar is shaping up as a strategic battle, with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) emerging as a potential kingmaker. Led by Asaduddin Owaisi, the party holds five seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, a number that could prove crucial in determining the outcome of the fifth seat.
Assembly Strength and Winning Threshold
To secure a Rajya Sabha seat from Bihar, a candidate must receive the backing of at least 41 MLAs. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which commands 202 legislators in the Assembly, appears comfortably positioned to win four of the five seats. However, securing the fifth seat may require additional support beyond its existing numbers.
Political observers note that the NDA would need three extra votes to claim the final seat without relying on cross-voting, a factor that adds uncertainty to the contest.
On the other side, the Opposition INDIA bloc has 35 MLAs. It would need six more votes to reach the required figure. With AIMIM’s five legislators and potential backing from the Bahujan Samaj Party’s lone MLA, the Opposition alliance could mount a competitive challenge.
Retirements Open the Field
The five seats are falling vacant as several members complete their terms on April 9. Among those retiring are Amarendra Singh and Premchand Gupta from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). From Janata Dal (United), Union Minister Ram Nath Thakur and Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Harivansh are set to conclude their tenures. Upendra Kushwaha of Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM), who was elected under the Bharatiya Janata Party quota, will also retire.
Sources within the RJD indicate that the party is considering fielding a prominent and influential candidate to strengthen its bid for the fifth seat. The final selection is expected to reflect both political arithmetic and alliance dynamics.
Candidate Speculation Intensifies
Within JD(U), Ram Nath Thakur, son of former Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur, is widely seen as a strong contender for renomination. Party insiders suggest his candidature is almost certain. At the same time, any decision regarding Harivansh could carry broader political implications, as excluding him might send unintended signals to alliance partners.
The Bharatiya Janata Party has also hinted at fielding well-known figures. Among the names circulating in political circles are Bhojpuri actor Pawan Singh and Upendra Kushwaha. However, Kushwaha’s party holds only four MLAs in the Assembly, raising questions about how other NDA allies would coordinate support if he enters the race.
Meanwhile, discussions are reportedly underway within the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) about the possibility of nominating Reena Paswan, mother of party leader Chirag Paswan, for the Upper House.
Smaller Parties in a Pivotal Role
The arithmetic of the Assembly underscores the significance of smaller parties in this election. AIMIM’s five MLAs and the BSP’s single legislator could tilt the balance if the Opposition consolidates its numbers. Given the narrow margins involved for the final seat, each vote carries considerable weight.
With nomination announcements expected soon, political negotiations are likely to intensify in the coming days. While the NDA remains numerically dominant, the contest for the fifth Rajya Sabha seat from Bihar has added an element of suspense to what might otherwise have been a straightforward election.
As parties finalize their strategies, the outcome will depend not only on numbers but also on alliance management and candidate selection in the days leading up to polling.