US : Brazil and Petrobras are under further pressure as a result of actions on Venezuela’s oil
US: According to Brasil 247, signs indicate that the United States may encourage Venezuela to resume oil production in accordance with President Donald Trump’s plans, which are expected to change the regional energy landscape and create new difficulties for Brazil and its state-owned oil giant Petrobras.
Over the last several decades, oil production in Venezuela, which has the greatest known crude reserves in the world, has drastically decreased. Production is now less than one million barrels per day, down from a record of around 3.5 million barrels per day.
Analysts predict that competition for investment capital in South America’s oil industry would increase if US policy changes result in a gradual rebound in Venezuelan production.
Brasil 247 claims that this possible change is putting further pressure on Petrobras to expedite important strategic choices, especially those pertaining oil exploration in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin.
Large offshore oil projects are already being advanced by neighboring Guyana and Suriname in addition to Venezuela; these projects are anticipated to greatly increase regional supply in the next years.
The events are taking place in the context of increased volatility in the world’s energy markets.
Following the US military incursion in Venezuela last week, worries over supply threats caused oil prices to close the most recent trading session higher. According to reports, the event led to the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, the former leader of Venezuela, and his wife, Cilia Flores, which increased risk premiums in oil markets and increased regional unrest.
As Venezuelan output progressively increases, industry analysts predict that although the immediate impact on Petrobras may be minimal, the medium- to long-term implications might be significant. They point out that the Equatorial Margin is seen as a strategic priority and that Petrobras will need to improve its competitive position.
Rapid expansion is also occurring elsewhere in the area. Within two years, Guyana’s production is expected to rise from around 900,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day under the leadership of ExxonMobil on its primary offshore project.
Production is scheduled to start in 2028, and Suriname, which has more than 750 million recoverable barrels, is anticipated to get its first TotalEnergies production platform later this year.
Brazil’s Equatorial Margin is thought to contain roughly 30 billion barrels, whereas Venezuela’s reserves are estimated to have over 303 billion barrels. However, compared to the deep- and ultra-deep offshore areas of Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname, Venezuela’s oil deposits are mostly onshore or in shallow seas, making extraction far less expensive.