Iran – Gulf Allies Warn US of Persistent Iranian Missile Threat
Iran – American partners in the Persian Gulf have privately cautioned Washington that Iran’s missile program continues to pose a significant risk to US forces and interests across West Asia, even as regional governments intensify diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader military confrontation.
Gulf States Flag Ongoing Military Risks
According to officials familiar with recent intelligence discussions, allied governments in the Persian Gulf have conveyed concerns that Iran retains the ability to target US military assets in the region. Despite earlier claims that Iran’s missile capabilities were weakened during last year’s brief conflict with Israel, regional assessments suggest Tehran still holds critical operational strength.
A recent evaluation conducted by one Gulf ally reportedly found that while some infrastructure suffered damage during the fighting, the core of Iran’s missile programme remains functional. Parts of the system have already been restored, leaving US bases and troop deployments exposed if tensions escalate.
Missiles Still Capable of Reaching US Installations
The assessment indicates that Iran continues to possess short- and medium-range missiles, launch platforms, and elements of its domestic production network. These systems are believed capable of striking more than a dozen US military sites across the Persian Gulf, where tens of thousands of American personnel are stationed.
These findings have reinforced concerns in Washington that Iran could still carry out effective retaliatory strikes. US defence planners are said to be factoring these risks into contingency planning, particularly as military activity in the region increases.
Regional Allies Avoid Direct Involvement
At the same time, Gulf governments have signalled they are unwilling to be drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran. In recent discussions, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia reportedly informed US officials that their territory and airspace would not be available for launching operations against Iran.
This position reflects growing unease among regional states about the potential consequences of a wider war. Officials fear that any conflict involving Iran and the United States would quickly spill across borders, threatening energy infrastructure, trade routes, and domestic stability.
Iran Accelerates Repairs and Production
Additional insight into Iran’s military posture suggests that Tehran has taken steps to strengthen its missile forces since the conflict with Israel. Analysts note increased production activity and the repair of launch systems damaged during the fighting.
Some missile launchers are believed to have been relocated to mountainous areas, making them harder to detect and neutralise. The terrain provides natural protection and complicates efforts to eliminate these assets through airstrikes or surveillance.
Air Defences Face Structural Limitations
Security experts also point to vulnerabilities in regional air defence networks. Iran is assessed to maintain the largest missile arsenal in West Asia, with stockpiles exceeding the combined interceptor capacities of Gulf states.
While air defence systems exist across the region, they remain only partially integrated and are heavily focused on protecting select high-value locations. This leaves other areas potentially exposed to large-scale or saturation attacks.
US Policy Shaped by Escalation Fears
Iran’s military capabilities continue to influence US decision-making as Washington expands its security presence in the region. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump issued sharp warnings to Tehran following economic unrest inside Iran, at one point encouraging protesters and suggesting external support.
His tone later shifted toward diplomacy, with calls for renewed negotiations and a possible nuclear agreement. Iranian leaders, however, have warned that any US-initiated conflict would not remain limited and would draw in the wider region.
Diplomatic Signals Amid Rising Tensions
Despite heightened rhetoric, there are signs of limited diplomatic movement. Iranian officials have indicated that preliminary progress has been made toward establishing a framework for talks with Washington, even as military deployments continue.
Meanwhile, US Central Command has maintained an expanded presence in West Asia, deploying additional warships, aircraft, and personnel under what it describes as regional security measures. Iran has reiterated that it would respond decisively to any act of aggression, underscoring the fragile balance between deterrence and diplomacy.