Russian oil: November sees a dramatic decline in shipments as importers are concerned about sanctions The IEA
Russian oil: According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) most recent report, Russian oil shipments fell sharply in November as consumers became more wary of the dangers associated with stricter US sanctions.
The agency said that Russian oil exports decreased by 420 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) in November, and Moscow’s oil earnings dropped to USD 11 billion, USD 3.6 billion less than a year earlier, due to a combination of reduced shipments and lower pricing.
According to the IEA, “Russia’s total oil exports fell by roughly 400 kb/d in November to 6.9 mb/d, as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions.”
Export income fell to their lowest point since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022 as a result of the steep drop in Urals oil prices, which fell by USD 8.2/bbl (bbl is barrel, or about 159 liters) to USD 43.52/bbl.
A number of nations have received warnings from the US that if they keep buying Russian oil, they may be subject to more tariffs and other severe trade actions. Citing ongoing purchases of Russian oil, it has added a 25% duty on Indian imports. This was on top of the 25% tariff that US President Trump had earlier declared.
November saw a 610 kb/d drop in the world’s oil output, according to the IEA, continuing the cumulative decreases from September’s record of 109 mb/d (million barrels per day) to 1.5 mb/d.
According to the research, supply interruptions in sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela were the primary cause of roughly three-quarters of the total fall in OPEC+.
Due to significant unanticipated outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan as well as ongoing contractions in Russia and Venezuela, the group was responsible for 80% of the supply decline during the previous two months.
Iran’s oil loadings, on the other hand, have been steady at about 1.9 mb/d in recent months. The United States, Brazil, and biofuels were the primary causes of the total supply reduction among non-OPEC+ producers.
According to the IEA, the world’s oil supply is still predicted to increase by 3 mb/d in 2025 and by an additional 2.4 mb/d in 2026, notwithstanding recent tightness. Due to better macroeconomic and trade circumstances, it is anticipated that global oil consumption would increase by 830 kb/d in 2025.
Additionally, the agency has raised its 2026 demand prediction by 90 kb/d to 860 kb/d above its previous estimate.
According to the analysis, half of this year’s demand increase will be driven by gasoil and jet/kerosene, while fuel oil continues to lose ground as natural gas and solar power production replace it.
According to the IEA, product cracks and refining margins reached three-year highs in November as a result of refinery disruptions and impending EU limitations on goods made from Russian oil.