ChinaMilitary – Senior PLA Arrests Raise New Questions About Beijing’s War Readiness
ChinaMilitary – The arrest of two of China’s most senior military figures has triggered fresh scrutiny of the People’s Liberation Army’s internal stability and its capacity to carry out complex operations, including any potential action involving Taiwan. The detentions, ordered by President Xi Jinping and announced on January 24, have sent ripples through China’s defense establishment and beyond.
High-Level Detentions Shock Military Establishment
Those taken into custody were General Zhang Youxia, a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and the PLA’s highest-ranking uniformed officer, and General Liu Zhenli, chief of staff of the Joint Staff Department. Zhang, who was approaching retirement, had long been viewed as one of the most influential figures within the armed forces. Liu, meanwhile, played a central role in operational planning.
Their removal has left the Central Military Commission with only two remaining members, creating its smallest configuration since the Mao era. Observers note that Xi has often delayed filling vacancies following purges, reinforcing uncertainty about whether new appointments will be made soon or whether authority will be further centralized.
A Gradual Hollowing of Military Leadership
When Xi assumed power in 2012, the commission consisted of 11 members. That number had already been reduced to six by 2022. Prior to the latest arrests, several senior figures had been dismissed in corruption-related investigations, contributing to what analysts describe as a steady erosion of professional military leadership.
With operational experience now scarce at the top, questions have emerged about how effectively the commission can function as a decision-making body. Critics argue that it increasingly operates as an extension of presidential authority rather than an arena for independent military judgment.
Political Oversight Takes Center Stage
The only remaining uniformed officer on the commission is General Zhang Shengmin, whose career has focused on political discipline and internal oversight rather than battlefield command. Promoted in late 2025, Zhang is widely seen as a key figure in enforcing loyalty and managing internal investigations within the PLA.
While his role strengthens political control, defense analysts note that the absence of seasoned combat commanders at the highest level may complicate day-to-day military planning and coordination.
Loyalty Rules and Internal Discipline
Legal and policy experts point to regulations introduced in 2017 that emphasize absolute adherence to the chairman’s authority. Under these rules, senior officers are expected not only to carry out orders but also to personally reassure the top leadership. Allegations that Zhang and Liu violated this system suggest deeper tensions over compliance and trust within the military hierarchy.
An editorial published days after the arrests acknowledged “short-term difficulties,” an unusually candid admission that the turmoil has affected the armed forces.
Politics Over Espionage Allegations
Former diplomat Michael Kovrig, who previously endured lengthy detention in China, has cast doubt on claims that the arrested generals were involved in espionage. He argues that the available evidence points more convincingly toward internal political struggles and selective enforcement of corruption charges rather than foreign intelligence links.
According to Kovrig, corruption has long been embedded in promotion and procurement practices within the PLA. Such behavior was often overlooked until political circumstances shifted, making senior figures vulnerable once their influence waned.
Implications for Taiwan Scenarios
Strategic analysts at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute assess that the upheaval is more likely to reduce the chance of a near-term, large-scale military operation against Taiwan. They cite weakened trust, leadership churn, and risk-averse behavior among commanders as factors that undermine readiness for complex joint campaigns.
At the same time, they caution that Beijing may seek to demonstrate continued military strength through more frequent drills and pressure activities around Taiwan, raising the risk of miscalculation even if a deliberate invasion appears less likely.
A Watershed Moment for the PLA
Security scholars describe the events of January 24 as a turning point with lasting consequences. The effective removal of experienced commanders has disrupted institutional continuity and left key leadership roles vacant, echoing periods of past instability.
While limited military actions cannot be ruled out, most analysts agree that the current priority appears to be consolidating control and addressing internal doubts rather than preparing for immediate war. The longer-term impact on China’s military effectiveness, however, remains an open and closely watched question.