Report: In 2026, the agriculture industry will stabilize but remain uneven; supply changes will affect maize and soybeans
Report: Even though things will still be unequal, the agricultural industry is probably going to stabilize in 2026. The 2025–2026 season is predicted to see a tightening of supply in the global soybean market, with ending stocks predicted to decline slightly year over year. Even though worldwide soybean output is down from the previous year, demand is expected to hit historic highs.
According to ING’s Commodities Outlook 2026, this is caused by record-high demand and a drop in global supply, mostly as a result of fewer US soybean plantings amid rising trade tensions between the US and China.It is predicted that US soybean output would drop 2.8% year over year to just under 116 million tons. This is in spite of the expected 7.1% YoY decline in planted area, according to the research.
The 2025–2026 soybean harvest in Brazil is predicted to be another record harvest, with output estimated to reach at least 175 million tonnes, up 2% from the previous year. This will strengthen Brazil’s status as the world’s leading supplier of soybeans.
On the other hand, record corn output this year has put pressure on maize prices. According to the research, a worldwide shortfall of almost 39 million tons is anticipated in the 2026–2027 marketing year, when the maize market would see a more significant tightness.US farmers should boost soybean acreage at the cost of maize acreage as a result of an agreement with China. Furthermore, we anticipate that yields will decline from the record highs of 2025–2026 and move closer to the five-year average. This would result in a US corn harvest of almost 394 million tonnes, which would be the second-largest crop on record despite a 7% YoY decline, the study said.
Additionally, record output is anticipated for global wheat inventories, which are predicted to rise by almost 10 million tonnes year over year to 271 million tonnes. “Global wheat production is expected to total almost 829m tonnes this season, up 3.5% YoY, and above the 809m tonnes forecast back in May this year.” , according to the research.
Additionally, owing to robust production from major producers, sugar prices have dropped by more than 20% in 2025, with a big surplus anticipated in the 2025–2026 marketing year.The market could go from a deficit of over 2 million tonnes in 2024–2025 to a surplus of around 7 million tonnes in 2025–2026 due to stronger production, the research said. This would be the biggest sugar surplus since 2017–2018.
As increased supply forecasts and decreased demand have restored the market to excess in the 2024–2025 season, cocoa prices have collapsed this year, making it “one of the worst-performing commodities,” with London cocoa plummeting almost 60%.Ecuador’s cocoa output is anticipated to rise due to improved yields and plantation development. In the next years, Ecuador, now the third-largest producer, is expected to overtake Ghana as the number two producer. Ecuador is predicted to produce 580k tons for the 2025–2026 season, up around 4% YoY, maintaining its increasing production pattern,” the research said.
Due to limited stockpiles and bad weather in Brazil, Arabica coffee, on the other hand, has been “one of the strongest performers amongst agri commodities” and has increased by more than 25% this year. However, it is predicted to fall in 2026. Brazil’s increased arabica production and Vietnam’s robusta harvest are expected to boost supply.Following the US’s removal of both the reciprocal coffee duties and the extra 40% tax on Brazilian coffee, we should begin to see some normalization in flows,” the research said.