Toll collection : India’s growth could rise to 5–9%, according to a report
Toll collection: According to a recent analysis, traffic and toll collection growth is predicted to rise to 5–9% in FY26, which would propel stability in the toll road sector through FY27.
According to the ICRA assessment, the prognosis for the toll road industry is still favorable, opening the door for further expansion.
According to M Rajashekar Reddy, Assistant Vice President & Sector Head, ICRA, “the inflation-linked toll rate hike is projected at around 3.2 percent for newer projects and 1.6 to 2 percent for older projects in FY2027 on the back of benign WPI inflation.”
Consequently, it is anticipated that toll collection growth would rise by 5–8% in FY27. According to the research, the debt coverage metrics for BOT toll road projects are anticipated to continue to be sufficient due to robust toll receipts and benign O&M expenses.
The paper also emphasizes how the recent tightening of bidding requirements for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) and Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects is a step in the right direction. However, as a number of players continue to qualify under the strict requirements, the level of competition is unlikely to significantly decrease.
In the first nine months of FY26, the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) generated Rs 12,357 crore via Toll-Operate-Transfer bundles, bringing the total amount of money collected since FY19 to Rs 1,04,990 crore. By the end of current fiscal year, total revenues are anticipated to reach over Rs 1.3 lakh crore, with further packages in the works.
Between April and October 2025, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) executed 3,468 km of roads, up from 3,920 km over the same time the previous year. The agency predicted that road execution would reduce to 9,000–9,500 km for the whole fiscal year FY2026, which is somewhat less than the 10,660 km attained in FY25.
Road awards were projected by the ratings agency to reach 8,500–9,000 km in FY2026, which is little more than the 7,500–8,000 km in FY2025. It said that a significant increase in order awards from the Ministry is seen to be essential to reducing the level of competition and assisting the industry.
“The outlook for the operational toll road sector remains stable, supported by expectations of steady traffic growth and controlled inflationary pressures,” it said, despite the short-term construction issues.
Additionally, it maintained a “Stable outlook” for the larger construction industry, forecasting revenue growth of 8–10% for FY2027—slightly higher than the 6–8% increase expected for FY2026.