The Trump-Xi Meeting: What to anticipate from crucial discussions and what would happen if they don’t work

Next week, US President Donald Trump will make his first trip to Asia since assuming office earlier this year, spending five days in South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. The journey coincides with increased geopolitical strain on the Trump administration, which is juggling the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a delayed peace in Gaza, and escalating trade tensions with Beijing.

The White House claims that Trump’s trip to Asia would be focused on securing vital resources, boosting US relationships in the Indo-Pacific, and extending economic access. The prospect of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting on the fringes of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Gyeongju, South Korea, however, is a huge area of interest and concern.

Officials are nonetheless wary of what to expect from the eagerly awaited encounter. A senior US source told Reuters, “There’s no guarantee the meeting will happen, and even if it does, no one’s expecting a breakthrough.” “Managing differences, not eradicating them, is the current objective.”

How Do US-China Relations Stand Right Now?

After a year of frequent clashes over trade, technology, and vital supply lines, tensions between the US and China have not decreased. The United States levied 145% tariffs on the majority of Chinese products in April. Beijing retaliated by imposing its own 125% duties.

Following months of escalation, a 90-day ceasefire that reduced tariff levels and allowed for talks was agreed upon by both parties in May. This short-term agreement expires on November 10 but was extended for an additional ninety days in August. The previous higher tariffs may be reinstated in the event that no new deal is achieved.

China recently implemented a new set of export restrictions on crucial resources, such as rare earth elements, synthetic diamonds, and essential lithium battery components, which increased tensions. China controls almost 90% of the world’s rare earth processing, and these elements are essential to the electronics, defense, and renewable energy industries.

The new regulations include a key clause that extends China’s authority beyond its boundaries to include goods made overseas with materials or technology under Chinese control. These precautions also apply to technology used in the fabrication of magnets and rare earth mining.

Trump has made threats of further reprisals. The US president described the export restrictions on rare earths as a direct affront to US interests and threatened to levy a 100 percent tax on Chinese imports starting November 1 if negotiations fail.

What is the agenda for the meeting between Trump and Xi?

It is anticipated that Trump and Xi will have their first in-person meeting since 2019 at the APEC summit in Gyeongju from October 31 to November 1. “President Trump will engage in a bilateral meeting with President Xi of the People’s Republic of China on Thursday morning local time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt informed reporters.

However, the encounter has not been formally verified by Chinese officials.

During Trump’s visit to South Korea, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that the two presidents’ discussions may merely be a casual “pull-aside.” But Trump took a different tack, telling reporters, “We’re going to make a deal on the rare earth,” and “We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything.”

If the summit does place, it would probably discuss commerce, exports of rare earth elements, technological limitations, and other broader geopolitical concerns. Trump said global conflicts and agriculture may also be discussed. The main topic I’ll be discussing with him is how we can put a stop to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, whether it is energy, oil, or something else entirely. Additionally, Trump said, “I believe he will be very receptive.”

Ahead of the summit, what is going on in Malaysia?

Senior U.S. and Chinese officials are gathering in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for the sixth round of trade talks ahead of any possible summit. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are leading these negotiations.

CNN reports that the main points of contention in the Malaysian negotiations are tariff reductions, technological regulations, and limits on rare earth elements. These talks come after previous sessions in Madrid, Stockholm, London, and Geneva.

“I’m hoping that we can get this ironed out this weekend so that the leaders can enter their talks on a more positive note,” Bessent told Fox Business. He also said that if Beijing’s rare earths policy isn’t stopped or changed, he does not rule out future escalation.

The talks will cover “key issues,” according to China’s Commerce Ministry, in accordance with “important consensuses reached during recent phone conversations between Xi and Trump.”

APEC: What Is It?

Promoting free trade and investment is the main objective of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference. The United States, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other countries around the Pacific Rim are among its members.

With “Building a Sustainable Tomorrow” as this year’s topic, talks will focus on bolstering supply chains, using AI and other technologies, and promoting development that is both inclusive and ecologically conscious.

Trump’s Asia Agenda: What Else?

The ASEAN conference, which Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is hosting, will be Trump’s first destination in Kuala Lumpur. CNN reports that he is anticipated to attend the working dinner of ASEAN leaders and might be there when Thailand and Cambodia sign a ceasefire accord in response to recent border fighting.

Trump will visit Tokyo from Malaysia to meet with Sanae Takaichi, the recently elected prime minister of Japan. During the visit, Japan is anticipated to reiterate a $550 billion investment plan in the US.

Trump will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung to talk about issues that have been contentious in recent months, including trade, defense cooperation, and worker migration laws. After that, he will speak at the APEC CEO summit luncheon and then to a working dinner for US-APEC leaders.

What If Talks Between Trump and Xi Don’t Work?

The results of Trump’s Asia visit, particularly any discussions with Xi Jinping, have significant implications for international commerce and political stability. The United States may apply tariffs of up to 155% starting on November 1st, a sharp increase from the present rate of 55%, if negotiations fail. Last week, Trump warned that unless an agreement is struck, China would be subject to a larger tariff burden.

He claimed Beijing has been “very respectful” and is paying “tremendous amounts of money” under the existing 55% tariffs, while speaking at the White House. Many nations exploited the United States, but they are no longer able to do so. If we don’t reach an agreement, China will pay 55% and maybe 155% on November 1st,” Trump said.

For its part, China may tighten its control over supply of rare earth elements or launch inquiries into American companies doing business in China.

Such escalation would increase supply chain disruptions worldwide and lead to a new trade war. In addition to increasing prices for American consumers and companies, higher taxes on Chinese imports might deter investment, impede development, and stoke recessionary worries.

China’s economy, which is currently struggling at home, may be put under further stress. Its economy’s backbone, small and medium-sized enterprises, may see a decline in exports and an increase in job losses.

“The first four rounds of China–US economic and trade consultations have fully demonstrated that, on the basis of mutual respect and equal consultation, the two sides are fully capable of finding ways to address each other’s concerns,” China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said at a press conference on Friday, warning against decoupling.